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ObamaCare - What Will It Cost You? [Interactive Tool]

PeopleKeep
November 8, 2013

One of the biggest ObamaCare questions of brokers, individuals, and employers alike is what will the ACA premiums cost, compared to the current rates? Will it be advantageous to purchase a health plan through the health insurance exchanges? Will my premium go up or down?

ObamaCare Premium Estimator Tools

There are several tools online available to estimate ACA premium costs in the new health insurance exchanges (for example, see the healthcare.gov estimator or marketplace premiums databook).

One interactive tool gaining buzz online comes from Forbes and the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research. They analyzed state exchange premiums and the interactive tool shows comparisons of current ("pre-ACA") premiums to "post-ACA" premiums.

Of course, you have to be careful when comparing ACA rates to pre-ACA rates because the plans today (2013) are not the same plans starting in 2014 -- and some current plans will be canceled because they don't offer essential health benefits or meet other ACA requirements. Given that, the tool aims to provide a look at premiums and eligibility for subsidies on a state by state basis.

Here's a look at the tool with the detailed data set to follow. 

obamacare know your rates

>> Click here to play with the interactive rate tool created by Forbes and Manhattan Institute for Policy Research.

Rate map 3 27 40 67

Pre-ACA vs. Post-ACA Premiums - The Data Set

Here is their data set for the individual market premiums pre-ACA and post-ACA. 

State

Age

Sex

Pre-ACA

Post-ACA

Change

AK

27

M

$130

$284

118%

AK

27

F

$234

$284

22%

AK

40

M

$299

$347

16%

AK

40

F

$368

$347

-6%

AK

64

M

$782

$814

4%

AK

64

F

$693

$814

17%

AL

27

M

$155

$210

35%

AL

27

F

$155

$210

35%

AL

40

M

$235

$256

9%

AL

40

F

$235

$256

9%

AL

64

M

$428

$602

41%

AL

64

F

$428

$602

41%

AR

27

M

$55

$192

250%

AR

27

F

$92

$192

110%

AR

40

M

$82

$235

187%

AR

40

F

$126

$235

87%

AR

64

M

$288

$551

91%

AR

64

F

$268

$551

105%

AZ

27

M

$82

$169

106%

AZ

27

F

$118

$169

43%

AZ

40

M

$128

$206

61%

AZ

40

F

$153

$206

35%

AZ

64

M

$387

$483

25%

AZ

64

F

$348

$483

39%

CA

27

M

$145

$206

42%

CA

27

F

$145

$206

42%

CA

40

M

$192

$252

31%

CA

40

F

$192

$252

31%

CA

64

M

$542

$591

9%

CA

64

F

$542

$591

9%

CO

27

M

$272

$207

-24%

CO

27

F

$272

$207

-24%

CO

40

M

$322

$252

-22%

CO

40

F

$322

$252

-22%

CO

64

M

$746

$592

-21%

CO

64

F

$746

$592

-21%

CT

27

M

$121

$214

77%

CT

27

F

$192

$214

12%

CT

40

M

$155

$261

68%

CT

40

F

$224

$261

16%

CT

64

M

$532

$612

15%

CT

64

F

$374

$612

64%

DC

27

M

$118

$141

20%

DC

27

F

$118

$141

20%

DC

40

M

$153

$190

24%

DC

40

F

$153

$190

24%

DC

64

M

$234

$424

81%

DC

64

F

$234

$424

81%

DE

27

M

$104

$216

108%

DE

27

F

$115

$216

88%

DE

40

M

$139

$263

90%

DE

40

F

$178

$263

47%

DE

64

M

$500

$617

23%

DE

64

F

$394

$617

57%

FL

27

M

$123

$203

64%

FL

27

F

$155

$203

31%

FL

40

M

$172

$247

44%

FL

40

F

$198

$247

25%

FL

64

M

$444

$581

31%

FL

64

F

$393

$581

48%

GA

27

M

$82

$209

154%

GA

27

F

$110

$209

90%

GA

40

M

$120

$255

113%

GA

40

F

$170

$255

50%

GA

64

M

$362

$599

65%

GA

64

F

$332

$599

80%

HI

27

M

$169

NA

NA

HI

27

F

$189

NA

NA

HI

40

M

$188

NA

NA

HI

40

F

$182

NA

NA

HI

64

M

$249

NA

NA

HI

64

F

$246

NA

NA

IA

27

M

$73

$163

122%

IA

27

F

$111

$163

46%

IA

40

M

$100

$199

100%

IA

40

F

$142

$199

40%

IA

64

M

$304

$467

54%

IA

64

F

$276

$467

69%

ID

27

M

$119

$202

70%

ID

27

F

$165

$202

23%

ID

40

M

$177

$246

39%

ID

40

F

$252

$246

-2%

ID

64

M

$485

$578

19%

ID

64

F

$440

$578

31%

IL

27

M

$91

$171

89%

IL

27

F

$125

$171

38%

IL

40

M

$150

$209

39%

IL

40

F

$183

$209

14%

IL

64

M

$387

$490

27%

IL

64

F

$320

$490

53%

IN

27

M

$166

$207

25%

IN

27

F

$211

$207

-2%

IN

40

M

$224

$252

13%

IN

40

F

$334

$252

-25%

IN

64

M

$712

$592

-17%

IN

64

F

$693

$592

-15%

KS

27

M

$68

$154

127%

KS

27

F

$103

$154

50%

KS

40

M

$102

$188

85%

KS

40

F

$142

$188

33%

KS

64

M

$424

$442

4%

KS

64

F

$362

$442

22%

KY

27

M

$104

$173

66%

KY

27

F

$124

$173

39%

KY

40

M

$123

$210

71%

KY

40

F

$189

$210

11%

KY

64

M

$328

$494

51%

KY

64

F

$343

$494

44%

LA

27

M

$95

$194

104%

LA

27

F

$136

$194

42%

LA

40

M

$133

$237

78%

LA

40

F

$199

$237

19%

LA

64

M

$412

$555

35%

LA

64

F

$397

$555

40%

MA

27

M

$286

$242

-16%

MA

27

F

$286

$242

-16%

MA

40

M

$382

$276

-28%

MA

40

F

$382

$276

-28%

MA

64

M

$573

$469

-18%

MA

64

F

$573

$469

-18%

MD

27

M

$101

$140

39%

MD

27

F

$132

$140

6%

MD

40

M

$133

$171

28%

MD

40

F

$167

$171

2%

MD

64

M

$362

$401

11%

MD

64

F

$313

$401

28%

ME

27

M

$186

$236

27%

ME

27

F

$186

$236

27%

ME

40

M

$250

$288

15%

ME

40

F

$250

$288

15%

ME

64

M

$514

$676

32%

ME

64

F

$514

$676

32%

MI

27

M

$96

$185

92%

MI

27

F

$91

$185

102%

MI

40

M

$140

$225

61%

MI

40

F

$155

$225

46%

MI

64

M

$376

$529

41%

MI

64

F

$343

$529

54%

MN

27

M

$95

$135

42%

MN

27

F

$95

$135

42%

MN

40

M

$117

$165

41%

MN

40

F

$117

$165

41%

MN

64

M

$273

$387

41%

MN

64

F

$273

$387

41%

MO

27

M

$102

$200

95%

MO

27

F

$156

$200

28%

MO

40

M

$148

$244

65%

MO

40

F

$221

$244

10%

MO

64

M

$586

$573

-2%

MO

64

F

$560

$573

2%

MS

27

M

$112

$236

111%

MS

27

F

$150

$236

57%

MS

40

M

$151

$288

91%

MS

40

F

$232

$288

24%

MS

64

M

$453

$676

49%

MS

64

F

$460

$676

47%

MT

27

M

$148

$176

19%

MT

27

F

$148

$176

19%

MT

40

M

$201

$215

7%

MT

40

F

$201

$215

7%

MT

64

M

$374

$504

35%

MT

64

F

$374

$504

35%

NC

27

M

$80

$214

166%

NC

27

F

$124

$214

73%

NC

40

M

$113

$261

132%

NC

40

F

$152

$261

72%

NC

64

M

$216

$613

184%

NC

64

F

$211

$613

191%

ND

27

M

$117

$198

69%

ND

27

F

$117

$198

69%

ND

40

M

$203

$241

19%

ND

40

F

$203

$241

19%

ND

64

M

$431

$567

31%

ND

64

F

$431

$567

31%

NE

27

M

$69

$170

147%

NE

27

F

$91

$170

87%

NE

40

M

$109

$208

90%

NE

40

F

$132

$208

58%

NE

64

M

$396

$488

23%

NE

64

F

$359

$488

36%

NH

27

M

$219

$197

-10%

NH

27

F

$220

$197

-11%

NH

40

M

$284

$240

-16%

NH

40

F

$321

$240

-25%

NH

64

M

$734

$563

-23%

NH

64

F

$734

$563

-23%

NJ

27

M

$308

$253

-18%

NJ

27

F

$420

$253

-40%

NJ

40

M

$420

$308

-27%

NJ

40

F

$480

$308

-36%

NJ

64

M

$702

$723

3%

NJ

64

F

$697

$723

4%

NM

27

M

$71

$182

157%

NM

27

F

$74

$182

146%

NM

40

M

$109

$222

104%

NM

40

F

$114

$222

95%

NM

64

M

$191

$522

173%

NM

64

F

$190

$522

175%

NV

27

M

$72

$305

325%

NV

27

F

$135

$305

126%

NV

40

M

$120

$372

210%

NV

40

F

$175

$372

112%

NV

64

M

$353

$872

147%

NV

64

F

$345

$872

153%

NY

27

M

$501

$299

-40%

NY

27

F

$501

$299

-40%

NY

40

M

$501

$299

-40%

NY

40

F

$501

$299

-40%

NY

64

M

$501

$299

-40%

NY

64

F

$501

$299

-40%

OH

27

M

$174

$191

10%

OH

27

F

$228

$191

-16%

OH

40

M

$265

$233

-12%

OH

40

F

$373

$233

-38%

OH

64

M

$854

$547

-36%

OH

64

F

$842

$547

-35%

OK

27

M

$90

$135

50%

OK

27

F

$123

$135

10%

OK

40

M

$136

$164

21%

OK

40

F

$182

$164

-10%

OK

64

M

$666

$386

-42%

OK

64

F

$461

$386

-16%

OR

27

M

$95

$156

64%

OR

27

F

$95

$156

64%

OR

40

M

$145

$190

32%

OR

40

F

$145

$190

32%

OR

64

M

$323

$447

39%

OR

64

F

$323

$447

39%

PA

27

M

$108

$158

46%

PA

27

F

$172

$158

-8%

PA

40

M

$164

$193

17%

PA

40

F

$221

$193

-13%

PA

64

M

$427

$452

6%

PA

64

F

$344

$452

31%

RI

27

M

$195

$202

4%

RI

27

F

$279

$202

-28%

RI

40

M

$271

$246

-9%

RI

40

F

$359

$246

-32%

RI

64

M

$569

$578

2%

RI

64

F

$569

$578

2%

SC

27

M

$122

$201

64%

SC

27

F

$188

$201

7%

SC

40

M

$204

$245

20%

SC

40

F

$295

$245

-17%

SC

64

M

$586

$574

-2%

SC

64

F

$495

$574

16%

SD

27

M

$95

$225

137%

SD

27

F

$160

$225

40%

SD

40

M

$150

$275

83%

SD

40

F

$191

$275

44%

SD

64

M

$384

$645

68%

SD

64

F

$344

$645

88%

TN

27

M

$81

$136

69%

TN

27

F

$113

$136

20%

TN

40

M

$120

$166

38%

TN

40

F

$157

$166

6%

TN

64

M

$306

$389

27%

TN

64

F

$287

$389

36%

TX

27

M

$91

$153

69%

TX

27

F

$126

$153

22%

TX

40

M

$129

$187

45%

TX

40

F

$186

$187

0%

TX

64

M

$413

$439

6%

TX

64

F

$394

$439

11%

UT

27

M

$110

$172

57%

UT

27

F

$113

$172

52%

UT

40

M

$161

$183

14%

UT

40

F

$161

$183

14%

UT

64

M

$362

$371

2%

UT

64

F

$362

$371

2%

VA

27

M

$109

$170

56%

VA

27

F

$152

$170

12%

VA

40

M

$161

$207

28%

VA

40

F

$207

$207

0%

VA

64

M

$643

$485

-25%

VA

64

F

$507

$485

-4%

VT

27

M

$148

$380

156%

VT

27

F

$148

$380

156%

VT

40

M

$170

$380

124%

VT

40

F

$170

$380

124%

VT

64

M

$223

$380

71%

VT

64

F

$223

$380

71%

WA

27

M

$124

$180

45%

WA

27

F

$124

$180

45%

WA

40

M

$182

$219

21%

WA

40

F

$182

$219

21%

WA

64

M

$401

$515

28%

WA

64

F

$401

$515

28%

WI

27

M

$92

$208

125%

WI

27

F

$117

$208

78%

WI

40

M

$146

$253

73%

WI

40

F

$194

$253

31%

WI

64

M

$431

$595

38%

WI

64

F

$354

$595

68%

WV

27

M

$147

$199

36%

WV

27

F

$201

$199

-1%

WV

40

M

$217

$243

12%

WV

40

F

$285

$243

-15%

WV

64

M

$722

$571

-21%

WV

64

F

$582

$571

-2%

WY

27

M

$159

$322

102%

WY

27

F

$303

$322

6%

WY

40

M

$275

$392

43%

WY

40

F

$364

$392

8%

WY

64

M

$806

$921

14%

WY

64

F

$728

$921

26%

Data via Forbes and Manhattan Institute for Policy Research. 

Methodology

Comparing pre- to post- ACA premium rates can be convoluted. Here's how the Manhattan Institute (MI) calculated their premium rate data:

  • The pre-ACA dataset was gathered from the federal government's finder.healthcare.gov and consists of the five least expensive plans (by monthly premium) for the most populous zip code in every county. To cover a significant age range MI collected rates for 27, 40, and 64-year old male and female non-smokers. They adjusted these rates to take into account those who are denied health insurance coverage as well as those who receive a surcharge. Using the "denial rate" and "surcharge rate" from the federal government's repository, they assumed that those who are surcharged pay 75 percent more and those who are denied, find insurance elsewhere at three times the original rate. They used this to develop a weighted average of the five least expensive insurance plans for every zip code identified. To develop a state-wide average, they took the state-wide average for every age-gender combination.

  • For post-ACA rates, MI created state-level averages by averaging rates for the five cheapest plans across all counties in a state. The data was sourced from ValuePenguin and because the ACA bans denials based on pre-existing conditions, there was no need to develop a weighted average of these rates.

Read more about methodology here.

What do you think - is this a helpful tool to know what ObamaCare will cost you or your clients? Is it accurate?
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