One of the biggest ObamaCare questions of brokers, individuals, and employers alike is what will the ACA premiums cost, compared to the current rates? Will it be advantageous to purchase a health plan through the health insurance exchanges? Will my premium go up or down?
ObamaCare Premium Estimator Tools
There are several tools online available to estimate ACA premium costs in the new health insurance exchanges (for example, see the healthcare.gov estimator or marketplace premiums databook).
One interactive tool gaining buzz online comes from Forbes and the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research. They analyzed state exchange premiums and the interactive tool shows comparisons of current ("pre-ACA") premiums to "post-ACA" premiums.
Of course, you have to be careful when comparing ACA rates to pre-ACA rates because the plans today (2013) are not the same plans starting in 2014 -- and some current plans will be canceled because they don't offer essential health benefits or meet other ACA requirements. Given that, the tool aims to provide a look at premiums and eligibility for subsidies on a state by state basis.
Here's a look at the tool with the detailed data set to follow.
Pre-ACA vs. Post-ACA Premiums - The Data Set
Here is their data set for the individual market premiums pre-ACA and post-ACA.
State |
Age |
Sex |
Pre-ACA |
Post-ACA |
Change |
AK |
27 |
M |
$130 |
$284 |
118% |
AK |
27 |
F |
$234 |
$284 |
22% |
AK |
40 |
M |
$299 |
$347 |
16% |
AK |
40 |
F |
$368 |
$347 |
-6% |
AK |
64 |
M |
$782 |
$814 |
4% |
AK |
64 |
F |
$693 |
$814 |
17% |
AL |
27 |
M |
$155 |
$210 |
35% |
AL |
27 |
F |
$155 |
$210 |
35% |
AL |
40 |
M |
$235 |
$256 |
9% |
AL |
40 |
F |
$235 |
$256 |
9% |
AL |
64 |
M |
$428 |
$602 |
41% |
AL |
64 |
F |
$428 |
$602 |
41% |
AR |
27 |
M |
$55 |
$192 |
250% |
AR |
27 |
F |
$92 |
$192 |
110% |
AR |
40 |
M |
$82 |
$235 |
187% |
AR |
40 |
F |
$126 |
$235 |
87% |
AR |
64 |
M |
$288 |
$551 |
91% |
AR |
64 |
F |
$268 |
$551 |
105% |
AZ |
27 |
M |
$82 |
$169 |
106% |
AZ |
27 |
F |
$118 |
$169 |
43% |
AZ |
40 |
M |
$128 |
$206 |
61% |
AZ |
40 |
F |
$153 |
$206 |
35% |
AZ |
64 |
M |
$387 |
$483 |
25% |
AZ |
64 |
F |
$348 |
$483 |
39% |
CA |
27 |
M |
$145 |
$206 |
42% |
CA |
27 |
F |
$145 |
$206 |
42% |
CA |
40 |
M |
$192 |
$252 |
31% |
CA |
40 |
F |
$192 |
$252 |
31% |
CA |
64 |
M |
$542 |
$591 |
9% |
CA |
64 |
F |
$542 |
$591 |
9% |
CO |
27 |
M |
$272 |
$207 |
-24% |
CO |
27 |
F |
$272 |
$207 |
-24% |
CO |
40 |
M |
$322 |
$252 |
-22% |
CO |
40 |
F |
$322 |
$252 |
-22% |
CO |
64 |
M |
$746 |
$592 |
-21% |
CO |
64 |
F |
$746 |
$592 |
-21% |
CT |
27 |
M |
$121 |
$214 |
77% |
CT |
27 |
F |
$192 |
$214 |
12% |
CT |
40 |
M |
$155 |
$261 |
68% |
CT |
40 |
F |
$224 |
$261 |
16% |
CT |
64 |
M |
$532 |
$612 |
15% |
CT |
64 |
F |
$374 |
$612 |
64% |
DC |
27 |
M |
$118 |
$141 |
20% |
DC |
27 |
F |
$118 |
$141 |
20% |
DC |
40 |
M |
$153 |
$190 |
24% |
DC |
40 |
F |
$153 |
$190 |
24% |
DC |
64 |
M |
$234 |
$424 |
81% |
DC |
64 |
F |
$234 |
$424 |
81% |
DE |
27 |
M |
$104 |
$216 |
108% |
DE |
27 |
F |
$115 |
$216 |
88% |
DE |
40 |
M |
$139 |
$263 |
90% |
DE |
40 |
F |
$178 |
$263 |
47% |
DE |
64 |
M |
$500 |
$617 |
23% |
DE |
64 |
F |
$394 |
$617 |
57% |
FL |
27 |
M |
$123 |
$203 |
64% |
FL |
27 |
F |
$155 |
$203 |
31% |
FL |
40 |
M |
$172 |
$247 |
44% |
FL |
40 |
F |
$198 |
$247 |
25% |
FL |
64 |
M |
$444 |
$581 |
31% |
FL |
64 |
F |
$393 |
$581 |
48% |
GA |
27 |
M |
$82 |
$209 |
154% |
GA |
27 |
F |
$110 |
$209 |
90% |
GA |
40 |
M |
$120 |
$255 |
113% |
GA |
40 |
F |
$170 |
$255 |
50% |
GA |
64 |
M |
$362 |
$599 |
65% |
GA |
64 |
F |
$332 |
$599 |
80% |
HI |
27 |
M |
$169 |
NA |
NA |
HI |
27 |
F |
$189 |
NA |
NA |
HI |
40 |
M |
$188 |
NA |
NA |
HI |
40 |
F |
$182 |
NA |
NA |
HI |
64 |
M |
$249 |
NA |
NA |
HI |
64 |
F |
$246 |
NA |
NA |
IA |
27 |
M |
$73 |
$163 |
122% |
IA |
27 |
F |
$111 |
$163 |
46% |
IA |
40 |
M |
$100 |
$199 |
100% |
IA |
40 |
F |
$142 |
$199 |
40% |
IA |
64 |
M |
$304 |
$467 |
54% |
IA |
64 |
F |
$276 |
$467 |
69% |
ID |
27 |
M |
$119 |
$202 |
70% |
ID |
27 |
F |
$165 |
$202 |
23% |
ID |
40 |
M |
$177 |
$246 |
39% |
ID |
40 |
F |
$252 |
$246 |
-2% |
ID |
64 |
M |
$485 |
$578 |
19% |
ID |
64 |
F |
$440 |
$578 |
31% |
IL |
27 |
M |
$91 |
$171 |
89% |
IL |
27 |
F |
$125 |
$171 |
38% |
IL |
40 |
M |
$150 |
$209 |
39% |
IL |
40 |
F |
$183 |
$209 |
14% |
IL |
64 |
M |
$387 |
$490 |
27% |
IL |
64 |
F |
$320 |
$490 |
53% |
IN |
27 |
M |
$166 |
$207 |
25% |
IN |
27 |
F |
$211 |
$207 |
-2% |
IN |
40 |
M |
$224 |
$252 |
13% |
IN |
40 |
F |
$334 |
$252 |
-25% |
IN |
64 |
M |
$712 |
$592 |
-17% |
IN |
64 |
F |
$693 |
$592 |
-15% |
KS |
27 |
M |
$68 |
$154 |
127% |
KS |
27 |
F |
$103 |
$154 |
50% |
KS |
40 |
M |
$102 |
$188 |
85% |
KS |
40 |
F |
$142 |
$188 |
33% |
KS |
64 |
M |
$424 |
$442 |
4% |
KS |
64 |
F |
$362 |
$442 |
22% |
KY |
27 |
M |
$104 |
$173 |
66% |
KY |
27 |
F |
$124 |
$173 |
39% |
KY |
40 |
M |
$123 |
$210 |
71% |
KY |
40 |
F |
$189 |
$210 |
11% |
KY |
64 |
M |
$328 |
$494 |
51% |
KY |
64 |
F |
$343 |
$494 |
44% |
LA |
27 |
M |
$95 |
$194 |
104% |
LA |
27 |
F |
$136 |
$194 |
42% |
LA |
40 |
M |
$133 |
$237 |
78% |
LA |
40 |
F |
$199 |
$237 |
19% |
LA |
64 |
M |
$412 |
$555 |
35% |
LA |
64 |
F |
$397 |
$555 |
40% |
MA |
27 |
M |
$286 |
$242 |
-16% |
MA |
27 |
F |
$286 |
$242 |
-16% |
MA |
40 |
M |
$382 |
$276 |
-28% |
MA |
40 |
F |
$382 |
$276 |
-28% |
MA |
64 |
M |
$573 |
$469 |
-18% |
MA |
64 |
F |
$573 |
$469 |
-18% |
MD |
27 |
M |
$101 |
$140 |
39% |
MD |
27 |
F |
$132 |
$140 |
6% |
MD |
40 |
M |
$133 |
$171 |
28% |
MD |
40 |
F |
$167 |
$171 |
2% |
MD |
64 |
M |
$362 |
$401 |
11% |
MD |
64 |
F |
$313 |
$401 |
28% |
ME |
27 |
M |
$186 |
$236 |
27% |
ME |
27 |
F |
$186 |
$236 |
27% |
ME |
40 |
M |
$250 |
$288 |
15% |
ME |
40 |
F |
$250 |
$288 |
15% |
ME |
64 |
M |
$514 |
$676 |
32% |
ME |
64 |
F |
$514 |
$676 |
32% |
MI |
27 |
M |
$96 |
$185 |
92% |
MI |
27 |
F |
$91 |
$185 |
102% |
MI |
40 |
M |
$140 |
$225 |
61% |
MI |
40 |
F |
$155 |
$225 |
46% |
MI |
64 |
M |
$376 |
$529 |
41% |
MI |
64 |
F |
$343 |
$529 |
54% |
MN |
27 |
M |
$95 |
$135 |
42% |
MN |
27 |
F |
$95 |
$135 |
42% |
MN |
40 |
M |
$117 |
$165 |
41% |
MN |
40 |
F |
$117 |
$165 |
41% |
MN |
64 |
M |
$273 |
$387 |
41% |
MN |
64 |
F |
$273 |
$387 |
41% |
MO |
27 |
M |
$102 |
$200 |
95% |
MO |
27 |
F |
$156 |
$200 |
28% |
MO |
40 |
M |
$148 |
$244 |
65% |
MO |
40 |
F |
$221 |
$244 |
10% |
MO |
64 |
M |
$586 |
$573 |
-2% |
MO |
64 |
F |
$560 |
$573 |
2% |
MS |
27 |
M |
$112 |
$236 |
111% |
MS |
27 |
F |
$150 |
$236 |
57% |
MS |
40 |
M |
$151 |
$288 |
91% |
MS |
40 |
F |
$232 |
$288 |
24% |
MS |
64 |
M |
$453 |
$676 |
49% |
MS |
64 |
F |
$460 |
$676 |
47% |
MT |
27 |
M |
$148 |
$176 |
19% |
MT |
27 |
F |
$148 |
$176 |
19% |
MT |
40 |
M |
$201 |
$215 |
7% |
MT |
40 |
F |
$201 |
$215 |
7% |
MT |
64 |
M |
$374 |
$504 |
35% |
MT |
64 |
F |
$374 |
$504 |
35% |
NC |
27 |
M |
$80 |
$214 |
166% |
NC |
27 |
F |
$124 |
$214 |
73% |
NC |
40 |
M |
$113 |
$261 |
132% |
NC |
40 |
F |
$152 |
$261 |
72% |
NC |
64 |
M |
$216 |
$613 |
184% |
NC |
64 |
F |
$211 |
$613 |
191% |
ND |
27 |
M |
$117 |
$198 |
69% |
ND |
27 |
F |
$117 |
$198 |
69% |
ND |
40 |
M |
$203 |
$241 |
19% |
ND |
40 |
F |
$203 |
$241 |
19% |
ND |
64 |
M |
$431 |
$567 |
31% |
ND |
64 |
F |
$431 |
$567 |
31% |
NE |
27 |
M |
$69 |
$170 |
147% |
NE |
27 |
F |
$91 |
$170 |
87% |
NE |
40 |
M |
$109 |
$208 |
90% |
NE |
40 |
F |
$132 |
$208 |
58% |
NE |
64 |
M |
$396 |
$488 |
23% |
NE |
64 |
F |
$359 |
$488 |
36% |
NH |
27 |
M |
$219 |
$197 |
-10% |
NH |
27 |
F |
$220 |
$197 |
-11% |
NH |
40 |
M |
$284 |
$240 |
-16% |
NH |
40 |
F |
$321 |
$240 |
-25% |
NH |
64 |
M |
$734 |
$563 |
-23% |
NH |
64 |
F |
$734 |
$563 |
-23% |
NJ |
27 |
M |
$308 |
$253 |
-18% |
NJ |
27 |
F |
$420 |
$253 |
-40% |
NJ |
40 |
M |
$420 |
$308 |
-27% |
NJ |
40 |
F |
$480 |
$308 |
-36% |
NJ |
64 |
M |
$702 |
$723 |
3% |
NJ |
64 |
F |
$697 |
$723 |
4% |
NM |
27 |
M |
$71 |
$182 |
157% |
NM |
27 |
F |
$74 |
$182 |
146% |
NM |
40 |
M |
$109 |
$222 |
104% |
NM |
40 |
F |
$114 |
$222 |
95% |
NM |
64 |
M |
$191 |
$522 |
173% |
NM |
64 |
F |
$190 |
$522 |
175% |
NV |
27 |
M |
$72 |
$305 |
325% |
NV |
27 |
F |
$135 |
$305 |
126% |
NV |
40 |
M |
$120 |
$372 |
210% |
NV |
40 |
F |
$175 |
$372 |
112% |
NV |
64 |
M |
$353 |
$872 |
147% |
NV |
64 |
F |
$345 |
$872 |
153% |
NY |
27 |
M |
$501 |
$299 |
-40% |
NY |
27 |
F |
$501 |
$299 |
-40% |
NY |
40 |
M |
$501 |
$299 |
-40% |
NY |
40 |
F |
$501 |
$299 |
-40% |
NY |
64 |
M |
$501 |
$299 |
-40% |
NY |
64 |
F |
$501 |
$299 |
-40% |
OH |
27 |
M |
$174 |
$191 |
10% |
OH |
27 |
F |
$228 |
$191 |
-16% |
OH |
40 |
M |
$265 |
$233 |
-12% |
OH |
40 |
F |
$373 |
$233 |
-38% |
OH |
64 |
M |
$854 |
$547 |
-36% |
OH |
64 |
F |
$842 |
$547 |
-35% |
OK |
27 |
M |
$90 |
$135 |
50% |
OK |
27 |
F |
$123 |
$135 |
10% |
OK |
40 |
M |
$136 |
$164 |
21% |
OK |
40 |
F |
$182 |
$164 |
-10% |
OK |
64 |
M |
$666 |
$386 |
-42% |
OK |
64 |
F |
$461 |
$386 |
-16% |
OR |
27 |
M |
$95 |
$156 |
64% |
OR |
27 |
F |
$95 |
$156 |
64% |
OR |
40 |
M |
$145 |
$190 |
32% |
OR |
40 |
F |
$145 |
$190 |
32% |
OR |
64 |
M |
$323 |
$447 |
39% |
OR |
64 |
F |
$323 |
$447 |
39% |
PA |
27 |
M |
$108 |
$158 |
46% |
PA |
27 |
F |
$172 |
$158 |
-8% |
PA |
40 |
M |
$164 |
$193 |
17% |
PA |
40 |
F |
$221 |
$193 |
-13% |
PA |
64 |
M |
$427 |
$452 |
6% |
PA |
64 |
F |
$344 |
$452 |
31% |
RI |
27 |
M |
$195 |
$202 |
4% |
RI |
27 |
F |
$279 |
$202 |
-28% |
RI |
40 |
M |
$271 |
$246 |
-9% |
RI |
40 |
F |
$359 |
$246 |
-32% |
RI |
64 |
M |
$569 |
$578 |
2% |
RI |
64 |
F |
$569 |
$578 |
2% |
SC |
27 |
M |
$122 |
$201 |
64% |
SC |
27 |
F |
$188 |
$201 |
7% |
SC |
40 |
M |
$204 |
$245 |
20% |
SC |
40 |
F |
$295 |
$245 |
-17% |
SC |
64 |
M |
$586 |
$574 |
-2% |
SC |
64 |
F |
$495 |
$574 |
16% |
SD |
27 |
M |
$95 |
$225 |
137% |
SD |
27 |
F |
$160 |
$225 |
40% |
SD |
40 |
M |
$150 |
$275 |
83% |
SD |
40 |
F |
$191 |
$275 |
44% |
SD |
64 |
M |
$384 |
$645 |
68% |
SD |
64 |
F |
$344 |
$645 |
88% |
TN |
27 |
M |
$81 |
$136 |
69% |
TN |
27 |
F |
$113 |
$136 |
20% |
TN |
40 |
M |
$120 |
$166 |
38% |
TN |
40 |
F |
$157 |
$166 |
6% |
TN |
64 |
M |
$306 |
$389 |
27% |
TN |
64 |
F |
$287 |
$389 |
36% |
TX |
27 |
M |
$91 |
$153 |
69% |
TX |
27 |
F |
$126 |
$153 |
22% |
TX |
40 |
M |
$129 |
$187 |
45% |
TX |
40 |
F |
$186 |
$187 |
0% |
TX |
64 |
M |
$413 |
$439 |
6% |
TX |
64 |
F |
$394 |
$439 |
11% |
UT |
27 |
M |
$110 |
$172 |
57% |
UT |
27 |
F |
$113 |
$172 |
52% |
UT |
40 |
M |
$161 |
$183 |
14% |
UT |
40 |
F |
$161 |
$183 |
14% |
UT |
64 |
M |
$362 |
$371 |
2% |
UT |
64 |
F |
$362 |
$371 |
2% |
VA |
27 |
M |
$109 |
$170 |
56% |
VA |
27 |
F |
$152 |
$170 |
12% |
VA |
40 |
M |
$161 |
$207 |
28% |
VA |
40 |
F |
$207 |
$207 |
0% |
VA |
64 |
M |
$643 |
$485 |
-25% |
VA |
64 |
F |
$507 |
$485 |
-4% |
VT |
27 |
M |
$148 |
$380 |
156% |
VT |
27 |
F |
$148 |
$380 |
156% |
VT |
40 |
M |
$170 |
$380 |
124% |
VT |
40 |
F |
$170 |
$380 |
124% |
VT |
64 |
M |
$223 |
$380 |
71% |
VT |
64 |
F |
$223 |
$380 |
71% |
WA |
27 |
M |
$124 |
$180 |
45% |
WA |
27 |
F |
$124 |
$180 |
45% |
WA |
40 |
M |
$182 |
$219 |
21% |
WA |
40 |
F |
$182 |
$219 |
21% |
WA |
64 |
M |
$401 |
$515 |
28% |
WA |
64 |
F |
$401 |
$515 |
28% |
WI |
27 |
M |
$92 |
$208 |
125% |
WI |
27 |
F |
$117 |
$208 |
78% |
WI |
40 |
M |
$146 |
$253 |
73% |
WI |
40 |
F |
$194 |
$253 |
31% |
WI |
64 |
M |
$431 |
$595 |
38% |
WI |
64 |
F |
$354 |
$595 |
68% |
WV |
27 |
M |
$147 |
$199 |
36% |
WV |
27 |
F |
$201 |
$199 |
-1% |
WV |
40 |
M |
$217 |
$243 |
12% |
WV |
40 |
F |
$285 |
$243 |
-15% |
WV |
64 |
M |
$722 |
$571 |
-21% |
WV |
64 |
F |
$582 |
$571 |
-2% |
WY |
27 |
M |
$159 |
$322 |
102% |
WY |
27 |
F |
$303 |
$322 |
6% |
WY |
40 |
M |
$275 |
$392 |
43% |
WY |
40 |
F |
$364 |
$392 |
8% |
WY |
64 |
M |
$806 |
$921 |
14% |
WY |
64 |
F |
$728 |
$921 |
26% |
Data via Forbes and Manhattan Institute for Policy Research.
Methodology
Comparing pre- to post- ACA premium rates can be convoluted. Here's how the Manhattan Institute (MI) calculated their premium rate data:
-
The pre-ACA dataset was gathered from the federal government's finder.healthcare.gov and consists of the five least expensive plans (by monthly premium) for the most populous zip code in every county. To cover a significant age range MI collected rates for 27, 40, and 64-year old male and female non-smokers. They adjusted these rates to take into account those who are denied health insurance coverage as well as those who receive a surcharge. Using the "denial rate" and "surcharge rate" from the federal government's repository, they assumed that those who are surcharged pay 75 percent more and those who are denied, find insurance elsewhere at three times the original rate. They used this to develop a weighted average of the five least expensive insurance plans for every zip code identified. To develop a state-wide average, they took the state-wide average for every age-gender combination.
-
For post-ACA rates, MI created state-level averages by averaging rates for the five cheapest plans across all counties in a state. The data was sourced from ValuePenguin and because the ACA bans denials based on pre-existing conditions, there was no need to develop a weighted average of these rates.
Read more about methodology here.
What do you think - is this a helpful tool to know what ObamaCare will cost you or your clients? Is it accurate?